One can, of course, discuss whether the efficient market hypothesis holds or not. But, judging by the options market, it looks like the halving itself will be a non-event. If anything, traders seem to be more interested in hedging downside risk with put options than speculate on a large upside with OTM (out of the money) call options. In the medium term, there is a bullish bias, but we’ve recently seen a slow reduction in the optimism in the options market.