At the low end, $42,000 is a “conservative estimate” based on the assumption that 10%-20% of gold ETF investors will take a stake in a spot bitcoin ETF.

“Assuming that 10-20% of those precious metals ETF investors seek to diversify their investments into BTC,” Matrixport said in its report. “We can estimate potential inflows of $12-24 billion into the Bitcoin ETF. While the market cap of GBTC is currently only $17-18 billion, it reached a peak of $44 billion. Therefore, our estimate of $12-24 billion is relatively conservative.”

BlackRock filed its application for a spot bitcoin ETF on June 15 and rose to above $30,000 from $24,800 in the seven days following the filing. It was recently trading around $28,500.

“15,000-strong U.S. registered investor advisor (RIA) community are overseeing around $15 trillion. This group holds immense potential, and even a modest 1% allocation recommendation for Bitcoin would usher in around $50 billion in inflows,” Matrixport wrote.

“If Tether’s market cap increases by $24 billion, acting as a proxy for potential ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s price would rise to $42,000, representing a conservative estimate. With a larger influx of $50 billion (1% allocation from RIAs), Bitcoin could potentially rally to $56,000,” Matrixport said.

The SEC delayed a slew of ETF applications last month, saying it “finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to take action,” giving the regulator “sufficient time to consider.