Monday, December 11, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) ended the first U.S. trading day of the week in the green, but it gave up some gains as the U.S. 10-year yield spiked to its highest level in more than 16 years. In the last 24 hours, the world’s largest digital asset dipped into the red and is down by 1.57%. Meanwhile, the much-hyped ether futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) failed to capture the interest of investors, with low volumes reported on their first day of trading.

Bitcoin is set to end the U.S. trading day just below $28,000, up around 3%, according to CoinDesk Indices data. Meanwhile, ether is changing hands at approximately $1670, down modestly for the session. The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) is higher by 1.6% over the past 24 hours.

In the equities market, stocks were mixed Monday after U.S. lawmakers over the weekend prevented a government shutdown with a stop-gap bill. Interest rates continued to push higher, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield soaring another 11 basis points to 4.69%. The yield rose after unexpectedly strong manufacturing data underlined the resilience of the U.S. economy, with the ISM figures coming in at 49 versus a forecasted 47.7, suggesting that more rate hikes could be in the cards.

For crypto, all this is happening as the industry enters October, historically one of its strongest months.

The crypto market, especially bitcoin, has seen a sizable rally recently, influenced by factors like the SEC’s ether futures ETFs approvals and other government decisions, QCP Capital wrote in a recent note, highlighting that bitcoin has gained 15% in the last two weeks. However, QCP has concerns regarding the rally’s sustainability, with shifts in demand and historical data suggesting potential market downturns.

“We would even go further to say a futures-only ETF is arguably detrimental to spot price – as it potentially directs demand away from the spot market into a synthetic market,” they wrote. QCP says it is taking advantage of this rally to buy the downside hedges, expecting resistance to hold around $29,000-$30,000.

As far as the recently launched ether futures ETFs, volumes remained low throughout the trading day. Even if these ETFs come out, and they don’t massively drive price changes. That’s kind of okay. That’s what assets are supposed to do. They’re not supposed to be all over the room,” Dexterity Capital Managing Partner Michael Safai said on a recent appearance on CoinDesk TV.

“ETF issuers don’t know the markets like traders do,” he continued. “Their optimism is a bit misplaced; anyone who wants bitcoin or ether surely has it.

Edited by Stephen Alpher.

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