“While we are sympathetic to the above arguments we are skeptical that the SEC will classify ether as a commodity as soon as May,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note to clients on Jan. 18, adding that the chances of approval of a spot ether ETF by May this year is “not higher than 50%.”

ETH has surged in recent weeks following the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF as traders have bet on the likelihood of the approval of an ether exchange-traded fund. If approved, it would be the first time professional investors in the U.S. can gain exposure to the blockchain’s token without having to own it.

Following Ethereum’s transition from the proof-of-work to proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in 2022 and the negative impact this shift has had on the blockchain’s decentralization, ether now looks more similar to other altcoins outside of bitcoin (BTC) which have been classified as securities by the SEC, the report said.

“The ongoing lawsuits by the SEC against crypto exchanges offering staking services for proof-of-stake blockchains including Ethereum, make a spot ether ETF approval more challenging at least until these lawsuits are resolved,” the report added.

Read more: Bitcoin ETF Debut Serves as a Lesson for Ether ETF Speculators